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Temperature prediction markets allow traders to speculate on the highest temperature recorded today in major cities. These markets are active on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where contracts settle based on official weather data.
Polymarket typically references specific weather stations, such as airport-based METAR stations (e.g. KLGA, LAX, EGLC), providing continuous readings throughout the day. Kalshi contracts settle using the official National Weather Service (NWS) climatological report, which publishes the final daily maximum temperature after observation periods close.
Users searching for highest temperature today, weather bet results, Polymarket temperature markets, or Kalshi settlement values can use this hub to track temperature movement, compare station readings, and monitor intraday highs as markets develop.
A weather prediction market is a financial contract whose payout depends on a real, measured weather outcome — most often the highest temperature a city reaches on a given day. Instead of wagering against a bookmaker, traders buy and sell "yes" or "no" shares in a specific outcome, such as whether today's high in New York lands between 86° and 87°F. Each share settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the live price of a share — anywhere from 1¢ to 99¢ — behaves like a real-time probability. A contract trading at 60¢ reflects a market-implied 60% chance that the outcome will occur. As fresh forecast runs, satellite passes, and surface observations arrive through the day, those prices move, and the market continuously re-prices how likely each temperature band has become.
This is why a weather utility like ours sits naturally alongside these markets. The same live readings, station data, and short-range forecasts that traders watch to value a contract are exactly what we surface on this site. You do not need to place a single trade to find the data useful: the markets act as a crowd-sourced, money-weighted forecast that often updates faster than a traditional written forecast, and our tools let you follow the underlying temperatures the markets are built on.
The two platforms most associated with temperature trading take noticeably different routes to the same idea. Kalshi is a US-based, federally regulated exchange that specialises in granular daily contracts: highest and lowest temperature bands for individual cities, daily rainfall and snowfall totals, and specific severe-weather events. Its contracts are deliberately tied to a single, named, verifiable source so there is no ambiguity when the market settles.
Polymarket, by contrast, is a crypto-settled platform where contracts are priced in the USDC stablecoin rather than US dollars. It carries a broad mix of daily city-temperature markets plus larger-scale, longer-horizon questions — seasonal heat records, hurricane landfalls, and "hottest year on record" style milestones. In practice, traders who want fine-grained daily city highs gravitate toward Kalshi's structured ranges, while those chasing global or record-scale weather questions often find deeper liquidity on Polymarket. Both rely on official meteorological data to decide who is paid.
Settlement is the heart of any weather market, and it is where accurate data matters most. Most US daily-high contracts resolve against the National Weather Service's official daily climate report for a specific station — for example, Central Park for New York City. That report publishes the verified daily maximum after the observation window closes, usually the following morning. One subtlety that catches new traders out: NWS climate reports use local standard time year-round, so during daylight-saving months the "day" a high is recorded against can run roughly 1:00 AM to 12:59 AM the next calendar day, not a clean midnight-to-midnight window.
Daily markets that need a continuous intraday picture frequently reference airport METAR stations — the same KLGA, KLAX, or EGLC identifiers used across aviation and professional weather feeds — because those sites report temperature many times an hour. That gives traders a running view of how close the day's high is creeping toward a contract threshold, while the final NWS climate figure provides the clean, auditable number the contract ultimately pays on.
Underneath the trading screens, the engine is ordinary meteorology. A common approach is to pull an ensemble forecast — a set of model runs such as the 31 members of the GFS ensemble — and count how many members put the temperature above or below a contract's threshold. If 28 of 31 members clear 70°F, that is roughly a 90% model-implied probability, which a trader then compares against the market's current price to judge whether a contract looks cheap or expensive. The tighter the agreement among ensemble members, the more confident the signal.
Because the markets aggregate the capital and judgement of many participants, the resulting probabilities have historically tracked real outcomes fairly well: across large samples of resolved contracts, outcomes priced near 90% have tended to occur close to that often, and those priced near 10% have rarely happened. That calibration is what makes the live odds a genuinely useful supplement to a conventional forecast — not a replacement for it, but a second, market-tested opinion on what the day's weather will do.
This hub exists to help you follow temperature movement, compare station readings, and watch intraday highs develop as markets evolve. It is an information and data tool, not betting advice, and we do not run, accept, or settle any wagers. Prediction-market rules differ sharply by jurisdiction — some short-term binary contracts are restricted or banned in certain countries and regions — so it is your responsibility to know what is legal where you live before using any trading platform. Treat the implied odds as a probability estimate that can move quickly, never as a guarantee, and remember that the most reliable use of this page may simply be as a fast, crowd-weighted read on where today's temperature is heading.